Transition

Reference and the 12th
When the CAVWAYs concept was introduced at the 2018 ASCE Transportation and Development Conference (reference * at right), the comments and questions related primarily to the issue of transition; how does Davius envision that we will get to CAV Systems from where we are today?
Transition means building a clear path from trailhead to destination. Of course, life is a journey and our destination is a moving target, but a working, sustainable CAV System is a reasonable milestone. Davius' Tenth Commandment at right tells us to start soon, otherwise time windows will narrow and close. Transition steps are easiest when they offer immediate value and set the stage for change. Examples are included in the transition links at right.

General comments
  1. History tells us that around the year 1900, there were no airplanes in the USA. Twenty years later, while there were significant numbers of airplanes around, there was no airline service for long-distance travel. Now, a hundred years after that, the queues for security inspections, prior to boarding commercial airliners, can be long. The point is that, while few travelers a century ago could have envisioned commercial air travel as it is today, that incredible transition happened over many years. One feature to note is that acceptance of that service by travelers has been accompanied by an excellent safety record (recent Boeing 737 Max 8 problems not withstanding).
  2. It will be possible to deploy CAV Systems at a rate which mitigates both safety and financial risk. Early CAV Systems can serve captive populations, such as hotel and airline customers, over well-defined routes. As these are upgraded to offer extended service, they will find wider opportunity among more general populations.
  3. Beyond our own cities and towns, there are many places in the world where automobile traffic and congestion are at least as challenging as our own. We do not assume that California, or the USA for that matter, will be the earliest CAV-System adopters. Note: Davius does not (currently) live in California.
  4. We should not underrate the challenge of transition. After all, equating rail transportation to mass transit has been conventional wisdom for about 150 years.
  5. We should not overrate the challenge of transition because it is already underway; Dual-Mode Vehicles and HOV lanes on freeways are early indicators.
CAV Types
CAVWAYs will host public-service CAVs such as buses, limos, and taxis, commercial vehicles which meet standards, and private Dual-mode vehicles (see transition).
Davius' Tenth Commandment
Figure out where you're going; then start transition.

Reference
* Vineberg, M., Mass Transit – A Connected and Autonomous Vehicle Highway, Proceedings, ICTD 2018: Connected and Autonomous Vehicles and Transportation Safety, Pittsburgh PA, 15-18 July 2018, Transportation & Development Institute of ASCE, pp 56-66.